AaronMk

Brexit

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Stock markets already swinging down last I checked, the pound is throwing tantrums, and people are already salivating over breaking the UK apart. Discuss Brexit and all Brexit related accessories.

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18 minutes ago, Toki Zensekai said:

Um, could you please educate people like me who don't keep up with the times outside of Video Games? :berrywut:

Basically, the UK had a referendum on the 24th over whether they should stay in the European Union or leave it. 

They voted against staying in the EU, so now the Pound is plummeting in value, businesses are panicking and speculation runs rampant. Ireland and Northern Ireland are also splitting form the UK and staying with the Union.

 

As for my thoughts on the matter... I think that was very, very stupid. But what's done is done, we'll have to cope with the circumstances.

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brexit_wit__by_jollyjack-da7lhn6.jpg

For comedic reasons I chose that comic to point towards another interesting thing:

Around 62% of the voters in Scotland voted for "Remain" (yellow color), and more than 50% of the voters in Northern Ireland as well. This leads to many people in Scotland and Northern Ireland to demand independence from the UK themselves, because they dont feel represented in the vote. This becomes even more interesting when you know that Scotland had an Independence vote a few months ago, and now they have a reason to retry. This attempt could be successful, and that would tear the UK apart.

Quote from J.K. Rowling:

"Scotland will seek independence now. Cameron's legacy will be breaking up two unions. Neither needed to happen. "

And a quote from a German satirist Jan Boehmermann:

" Fellow Germans! Nothing holding us back now – finally, we can use ze tunnel for what we secretly built it for: ze invasion of Great Britain! " (To clarify: This is meant as a joke)

My opinion? A horrible choice, painful for the EU which might lead to the breakdown of the EU itself - which however is unlikely. But the real losers? The people in the UK.

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This is democracy in action in the end, the people have chosen and their will be respected.  Northern Ireland and Scotland which surprisingly had a pretty low turnout in comparsion to England and Wales that shocked everyone will more then likely have a second referendum

On one hoof, you can view this as the British people regaining their independence from a mostly unelected unaccountable intrusive European system that is making rules in your country and taking large sums of money in return. All their "doom and gloom" predictions from the mostly wealthy people from the upper echelons of the European Hierarchy are overblown and should be taken with a grain of salt because they have the most to lose.  Yes, there will be short term pain but most everything will adjust.  The European Union started off with noble intentions but for years now have started to show more and more cracks and it's inevitable that the whole thing will eventually fall apart.  You can see this type of nationalist rising all over Europe with every pasting day and in fact you can see a lot of it in America in the Trump and Sanders camps - people want to take back their country and not be beholden to the whims of corporations and the super wealthy.  People who are saying this is the worst case scenario may have a point short term but the markets and everyone will adjust, they always will.  Look at the recession, shit tanked hard and in a few years the S&P, FTSE, Dax, and all the major markets were hitting record highs.

Speaking of markets, they hate uncertainty - whether it has it's roots in positive or negative development is irrelevant.  

Young people, the educated, and the wealthy want to remain because they believe that will help out the economy and job prospects, that might work in the short term but over the long term it's totally up in the air.  Predictions from all these so called experts right now, in the medium term and beyond, hold no water with me because when you fail to foresee things like the Recession of almost 10 years ago now you tend to lose a lot of credibility.  I follow business and the markets and worldwide news and currencies, etc on a regular basis and the number of times these guys get stuff like this wrong all the time is astounding.  Especially with things like Forex it's really hit or miss.

Regardless of where the dice rolls here the point is that the people who have control of their own destinies and their own country.  Having corporations or people of some Euro institute who are both disconnected and largely unaccountable controlling your life and paying you less and less as the years go by should be a wake up call.  I'm hopeful that this mess of a Union fails and people will take control once again.

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58 minutes ago, "User" said:

This is democracy in action in the end, the people have chosen and their will be respected.  Northern Ireland and Scotland which surprisingly had a pretty low turnout in comparsion to England and Wales that shocked everyone will more then likely have a second referendum

On one hoof, you can view this as the British people regaining their independence from a mostly unelected unaccountable intrusive European system that is making rules in your country and taking large sums of money in return. All their "doom and gloom" predictions from the mostly wealthy people from the upper echelons of the European Hierarchy are overblown and should be taken with a grain of salt because they have the most to lose.  Yes, there will be short term pain but most everything will adjust.  The European Union started off with noble intentions but for years now have started to show more and more cracks and it's inevitable that the whole thing will eventually fall apart.  You can see this type of nationalist rising all over Europe with every pasting day and in fact you can see a lot of it in America in the Trump and Sanders camps - people want to take back their country and not be beholden to the whims of corporations and the super wealthy.  People who are saying this is the worst case scenario may have a point short term but the markets and everyone will adjust, they always will.  Look at the recession, shit tanked hard and in a few years the S&P, FTSE, Dax, and all the major markets were hitting record highs.

Speaking of markets, they hate uncertainty - whether it has it's roots in positive or negative development is irrelevant.  

Young people, the educated, and the wealthy want to remain because they believe that will help out the economy and job prospects, that might work in the short term but over the long term it's totally up in the air.  Predictions from all these so called experts right now, in the medium term and beyond, hold no water with me because when you fail to foresee things like the Recession of almost 10 years ago now you tend to lose a lot of credibility.  I follow business and the markets and worldwide news and currencies, etc on a regular basis and the number of times these guys get stuff like this wrong all the time is astounding.  Especially with things like Forex it's really hit or miss.

Regardless of where the dice rolls here the point is that the people who have control of their own destinies and their own country.  Having corporations or people of some Euro institute who are both disconnected and largely unaccountable controlling your life and paying you less and less as the years go by should be a wake up call.  I'm hopeful that this mess of a Union fails and people will take control once again.

I will grant you that this is indeed democracy in action, I cannot fault it on that.  Fully 75% of the electorate turned out and that is more than many US elections have.  That being said, I think this decision was wrong, I think the voters were wrong.  From my point of view this is a victory for nationalism and xenophobia against the forces of supranationalism and united humanity. (if it isn't clear I am in favor of the latter)

 

I will also grant that there is clear discontent with the EU government in Brussels, not just in the UK, but in Europe in general. I would say that there are really two ways to have this go. The first would be to do as you say, and break the Union apart.  That to me would be a terrible mistake.  The EU for all its clunkieness has generally supported peace, and humanitarianism. It has allowed Europeans to travel freely, or as close to freely as possible across boarders.  It is my hope that the follow another course and unite further now without Britain, ultimately dissolving the individual nation states in favor of a truly unified Europe.  They would need to reform the EU government and make it both more transparent and more important.  The European parliament elections should be just as important or even more so than the local "national" elections.

 

I dislike nationalism in general, but I particularly dislike the contemporary strain.  I understand that most other people feel the need to belong to something greater than themselves, but the nationalism that inspired this referendum, or trump, is a negative one; defining itself against what is seen as a foreign group. "This is our country not yours. You can never be a member of our nation your religion/ethnicity/language means your values are incompatible."  In fact the phrase "take our country back" drives me up a wall.  I agree with Benedict Anderson in his work Imagined Communities. Nation states exist in the minds of their citizens.  If that is the case from whom are you retaking the nation and why do they also not have an equal ability to imagine it?  Why can we not re imagine it, widen our definitions, change it.  I know you were specifically mentioning the "elite" as a class divide, but I think that this has greater ethnic and cultural roots, specifically racist, than class divides. Maybe that is my bias though, I am already a bit of a member of that elite, and I am looking to become further of one by eventually completing a PhD and teaching at a university. (sin the field of economics which you seem to specifically decry)

 

The worst aspect of this form of nationalism is that it denies the shared humanity of all of us. With wars refugees, economic turmoil, global climate change, and technology evolving faster than our societal, moral, and intellectual structures can cope, we more than ever badly need to come together not divided.

 

The markets will adjust, the UK might break up, and there might be a recession but as Keynes said, "in the long run we are all dead" I just truly worry about the political ramifications this might have unleashed.

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1 minute ago, One Trick Pony said:

I will grant you that this is indeed democracy in action, I cannot fault it on that.  Fully 75% of the electorate turned out and that is more than many US elections have.  That being said, I think this decision was wrong, I think the voters were wrong.  From my point of view this is a victory for nationalism and xenophobia against the forces of supranationalism and united humanity. (if it isn't clear I am in favor of the latter)

 

I will also grant that there is clear discontent with the EU government in Brussels, not just in the UK, but in Europe in general. I would say that there are really two ways to have this go. The first would be to do as you say, and break the Union apart.  That to me would be a terrible mistake.  The EU for all its clunkieness has generally supported peace, and humanitarianism. It has allowed Europeans to travel freely, or as close to freely as possible across boarders.  It is my hope that the follow another course and unite further now without Britain, ultimately dissolving the individual nation states in favor of a truly unified Europe.  They would need to reform the EU government and make it both more transparent and more important.  The European parliament elections should be just as important or even more so than the local "national" elections.

 

I dislike nationalism in general but I particularly dislike the contemporary strain.  I understand that most other people feel the need to belong to something greater than themselves, but the nationalism that inspired this referendum, or trump is a negative one; defining itself against what is seen as a foreign group. "This is our country not yours. You can never be a member of our nation your religion/ethnicity/language means your values are incompatible."  In fact the phrase "take our country back" drives me up a wall.  I agree with Benedict Anderson in his work Imagined Comunities. Nation states exist in the minds of their citizens.  If that is the case from whom are you retaking the nation and why do they also not have an equal ability to imagine it?  Why can we not re imagine it, widen our definitions, change it.  I know you were specifically mentioning the "elite" as a class divide, but I think that this has greater ethnic and cultural roots, specifically racist, than class divides. Maybe that is my bias though, I am already a bit of a member of that elite, and I am looking to become further of one by eventually completing a PhD and teaching at a university.

 

The worst aspect of this form of nationalism is that it denies the shared humanity of all of us. With wars refugees, economic turmoil, global climate change, and technology evolving faster than our societal, moral, and intellectual structures can cope, we more than ever badly need to come together not divided.

 

The markets will adjust, the UK might break up, and there might be a recession but as Keynes said, "in the long run we are all dead" I just truly worry about the political ramifications this might have unleashed.

Time will tell whether or not this decision makes sense.  I've heard all the talking points from both sides and studied the issue myself and while I see an argument can be made for xenophobia from some camps regarding the situation in Britain the fact that this nationalism is getting larger with each passing week all over Europe and America should clearly say something and be ringing alarm bells all over Brussels and the rest of the continent. I agree with you that the EU needs major institutional change but it drives me nuts to see every argument for nationalism or independence portrayed as xenophobia, being politically incorrect, or some other "oh don't offend now!" diatribe when the intent isn't there to being with.  Collectivism is not the be all and end all - at least not in the immediate future   You can't integrate entirely with such different cultures all over the continent right away, these things take time.  How upset would you be if people who were unelected not from your country were making decisions on how you live your life to your detriment. 

One thing we can both agree is that the EU needs to change, it has the right idea, but it's trying to do too many things too quickly. The power needs to come back to the people and not in unelected individuals or elites that control the destinies of those everywhere else. 

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4 hours ago, Skyrazer said:

Ireland ... splitting form the UK and staying with the Union.

 

As for my thoughts on the matter... I think that was very, very stupid. But what's done is done, we'll have to cope with the circumstances.

 

Ireland was never part of the UK. The Republic of Ireland has been divorced from it since basically 1916 (if you consider the Easter Rising the start, otherwise you could claim it to be 1919 or 1921).

 

 

Also a fun-fact I learned: apparently after the referendum Google searches for "What is the EU?" spiked to number one in the UK.

 

So they voted to leave something most didn't understand or know they were a part of. So good fucking job Brit-bongs.

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14 minutes ago, AaronMk said:

So they voted to leave something most didn't understand or know they were a part of. So good fucking job Brit-bongs.

 

Ignorant voting? That sounds familiar...

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I didn't hear about this until the night of the vote TBH. But honestly, it doesn't really surprise me - as the EU has had it's fair share of problems.

 

The UK and Germany made up most of the EU's Economy - with the rest basically being dead weight. (especially Greece) You can only spend so much of someone else's money before problems arise. (And on a side note, the US really needs to stop driving up the national debt)

 

 

 

 

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Anti-immigration and anti-Muslim sentiments seem to have driven a decent share of the leave votes. 

 

I've also seen a post saying that Parliament is considering a second referendum since the results were so close. 

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I agree with OneTrick, and couldnt disagree more with User.

Over the past years, all around in Europe the EU was blamed for all kind of bad things. To be honest, it's kinda easy to just pass the black card you've been dealt to the top. However, many change that EU brought forward had gone unnoticed or just be taken for granted. We had 70 years of peace in Europe, and I account the EU for that. Open borders, economic growth, common standards in technology... It would be really said to see those milestones breaking away.

The idea of countries and borders easily leads to a "Us vs Them" state of mind, and I believe that humanity needs to overcome this barrier. And while the EU could have done quite a few things different, I think that the EU was a step in the right direction. If this development leads to a reformation of the EU, I won't complain: There is a lot of room for improvement! But the EU has to remain, for the sake of peace and stability.

And concerning this:

7 hours ago, AaronMk said:

Also a fun-fact I learned: apparently after the referendum Google searches for "What is the EU?" spiked to number one in the UK.

That's the reason why I don't believe in national referenda. You let people vote for things they don't understand.

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18 minutes ago, Alpha268 said:

That's the reason why I don't believe in national referenda. You let people vote for things they don't understand.

Referendums have their positives and negatives. Giving power to the people is a good method for keeping governments in check, but an ignorant populace is even worse than a corrupt government. Best you can do in these situations is hope that people make the right choice. Then again, most people don't see the bigger picture and only care about themselves. However Referendums do work, Switzerland has been running on a Vox Populi system for ages now and it's worked out for them.

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From what I'm seeing on Twitter, there are comments all over news sites stating they were mislead about what would happen if they left the EU. Pretty sure there's a massive push for a second referendum.

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12 hours ago, Steamworks said:

From what I'm seeing on Twitter, there are comments all over news sites stating they were mislead about what would happen if they left the EU. Pretty sure there's a massive push for a second referendum.

Im laughing right now. "We were misled!", they yell now.

They were not. They were falling for populist propaganda, and the even worse thing: They did NOT do any research of their own. They voted, but didnt understand that voting also means that it is their responsibility to inform yourself about what you are voting for.

If they repeat the vote, it will be the worst display of democracy I have ever experienced in my life, and it will forever leave a stain in the reputation of the UK.

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It's still a re-vote a few days after the decision was made. The damage is already done either way.

 

What the EU should be doing at this point is to try and reform some of their policies - potentially fix some of their problems. So If Britain does return to the fold, things will be better off.

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4 hours ago, DawnOfNoob said:

It's still a re-vote a few days after the decision was made. The damage is already done either way.

 

What the EU should be doing at this point is to try and reform some of their policies - potentially fix some of their problems. So If Britain does return to the fold, things will be better off.

 

Reform what? Defy its mission and allow pre-EU nationalism to ferment by saying they can act more independent of the organization?

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Extreme Nationalism is always bad. (As is its polar opposite) But everyone has to have a little pride in their country, let alone their constituents having some pride in themselves. If everyone always acted like doormats, the world would likely be much worse off, if anything was left of it.

 

To reiterate...by reform, I mean fixing what's wrong. Britain was paying much more into the EU than it was getting back after all. Trimming the fat off nonsensical or outdated rules/policies/programs that might have built up over the years would likely help. (and probably would have prevented this from ever happening.) Same could be said about leadership too sometimes, but hey, that's the people's fault.

 

I'm not suggesting that they compromise everything they founded the EU for, but they should try and better their collective selves to try and dissuade another dramatic exit. And in time, they might draw Britain back in. (Assuming they don't cave)

 

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In an ideal setting one would have about as much pride in their home-country as they would their state if they were to live in America, which is to say, "I was born there, I got kin there, and my very foundation of my developmental life is there" but recognizes that as an all-in-all their future isn't totally dependable on their home-country as it was fifty years ago, or a hundred years ago. In the global economy it's fairly frequent for people to migrate outside of their home-country to another country. I to Canada, or a Canadian to America. Nationalism is a long term problem that in the evolving social economy would damage this trade by suggesting, promoting, and enacting in policy limits for the economic migrations of individuals from one market to another.

 

But on the EU cost of being a part of the EU: which number are we referring to? Farage's assessment or the one from the actual treasury? Neatly summed up here with appropriate citations the conclusion is quick to reach that the 350 million is an irrational number the Leave campaign made its slogan and tried to defend it as "well it could happen" ignoring that evidently the UK had veto powers to knock out any suggestion that the EU should charge the UK more. The actual cost comes in at a some number of millions less, but is further deducted based on just how much of that comes back to the UK in private-sector grants the EU dishes out.

 

I don't have the time right now to go in deeper, but the end-price of remaining in the EU wasn't really that terrible and bailing out just cuts the UK out of the benefit of the EU flipping the tab on subsidies for the poor, private economic interests, and keeping Norn Iron from being an absolute piece of shit. And when national budgets are concerned, when the UK's rebate is accounted for, on top of the money that ultimately comes back, the UK only pays a comparatively paltry 7.1 billion per annum, which is a flash in the pan amount when it comes to other budgetary concerns, and one where the UK's budget for this year is expected to spend a lovely sum of 772 billion, or 1.27 trillion US dollars.

 

So it's not like the cost thing was ever an issue to begin with. And the Brits have more than substantial power to slap the EU should they suggest they pay more and tell them to move on to the next thing on the agenda because they're going to kill it then and there.

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I agree with @AaronMk.

To say that britain makes a net loss in the EU is mostly propaganda. Aaron makes a good point already, but you also have to account all the benefits that cannot be expressed in money. What is the worth of free travelling? What is the worth of having a voice in a cooperation of states next to you?

Apparently tho, people start to realize what they have voted for...

total_defeat_by_jollyjack-da7yer2.jpg

Everything's been said.

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