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Will the movie underperform?

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What do you think? Will the movie underperform at the box office?

In my opinion, it will. I think people overestimate how many fans of MLP there are. 

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Depends on the budget.

I kind of look at something like "Serenity" as a decent baseline for the movie.  And even with the cult-popularity of Firefly, the movie was a box office failure, but like the show, did well on home video.  

The movie is not going to be some huge box-office hit.  In the end it's a show based on a cult favorite show, and will probably perform as those films have in the past.  The movie might not even have to make back it's budget.  Hasbro will no doubt make a lot off merchandising, and the movie, like the show, isn't there to make money on it's own.  It's there to push toys. 

Basically... 

 

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At the box office? Well, if this summer's anything to go by (just going with this because it's the most recent lots-of-movies that I have to go by, and I dunno when MLP: The Movie'll be released but it could be in the summer so there's a 25% chance of this being relevant to its potential performance I think), then...

I dunno. Maybe, maybe not. In order to tell you more, here's a crappy attempt at box office analysis (...I think that's what I'm attempting...) by someone who doesn't really know what he's talking about. My apologies in advance, for if when I get stuff wrong.

 

A ton of movies underperformed this summer (at least I've heard that, dunno if it's true...), so maybe summer's stopped being a good time for movie releases. It's possible that it was just the sheer quantity of big-budget movies being released in the same time-span though, and maybe there'll be fewer big releases next year (which would probably be a good thing for MLP: The Movie, since less competition). And it's also possible that this summer's number of disappointments was an aberration (dunno how to spell that, sorry), and next year fewer movies'll underperform.

It's possible that people just didn't feel like going to the movies as much this year, and they'll be more receptive to moviegoing next year, and maybe there'll be fewer movies at the box office next summer after this summer of numerous disappointments, and maybe MLP: The Movie'll be released at a different time of year, possibly to avoid being thrown into next year's summer-movie Thunderdome. And even if it does end up in Thunderdome 2017, MLP: The Movie will probably have some bronies seeing it, and it'll probably get at least some of FiM's target demographic to see it as well (with their families, presumably, which would most likely mean more tickets sold, which is a good thing for getting a profit), so it'll maybe get Beyond Thunderdome* with some profit, or at least make its budget back.

Also, like The Doctor said, it'll probably push some (read: many) toys, and digital sales are also probably going to be noteworthy, so it'll probably end up profitable for Hasbro even if the movie underperforms at the box office. And The Doctor's right about the budget too, but I don't think that'll sink MLP: The Movie. It'll probably have a reasonable-size budget, which it'll reasonably be able to make back at the box office.

 

So I think MLP: The Movie'll be fine. Might make a profit at the box office, might just make its budget back. Will probably be profitable no matter what thanks to merch.

At least, I think so.

 

*I couldn't resist. Okay, I could, but I didn't.

On an unrelated-to-getting-Beyond-Thunderdome note, I'm so happy right now. Started writing this like an hour ago, and it's finally over...

:derpydance:

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Really depends on a lot of factors, and what your definition of "underperforming" is. 

 

I dont think anyone, Hasbro included, is expecting some huge $200 million dollar mega hit movie. But it doesn't have to be one of those movies to perform well. Hasbro has stated in their conference calls that they feel, thanks to both advances in technology, as well as everything they have in place, they can produce the movie without spending a ton of money. It won't be one of those $200 million dollars-to-produce animated movies either.  There's a good chance it could easily make back what they are investing in it, depending on how much they are sinking in. 

 

And of course, as others have said, Hasbro has always made most of their money on toys (that's what their company does). They just feel entertainment is something important to drive engagement with their customers, which is why they invest heavily in it. Ratings or performance have never been a big issue with the show, as long as their toys are selling. So, even with a mediocre box office performance relative to their investment, if the tie in toys sell really well, the movie could still be seen as performing well for them. 

 

Personally, I'm excited that this will be one of the few traditionally animated movies to hit theaters from the US of this decade. Outside of Pooh and the two Spongbob movies, basically everything else has been CG (not including Lakita's awesome stop motion films). Hopefully other animation fans will have their interest peaked by the movie just for that, and maybe it can lead to more traditionally animated films in the future if it performs well. :)

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Marketing will help it. If Hasbro push it well enough throughout 2017. Tons of trailers in cinema during the 2017 summer season. Should keep it going solid.

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I am honestly not sure.

I suspect the film will most likely hit between the $200 and $400 million mark.
The Peanuts Movie made $246 million, The Angry Birds Movie made $346 million, Ice Age: Collision Course made $403 million.
I have a feeling this could be the ballpark and that would be a good result.

Here's the thing, I don't think MLP is popular enough to get anything over that, heck a sad part of me doesn't even think it can reach it.
Keep in mind that Warcraft, as massive budget film with a huge marketing campaign only achieved $433 million, which wasn't enough to make back their marketing budget.

So the big question will be, how much does the film cost to make and how much will be spent on the marketing? Spend too much on the marketing and you might risk losing out big time on profit, not spend enough and you'll risk not reaching out.

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Depends on how much hype it'll have, like promotion...and how much celebrities talk and tweet about it and more. 

Including previews during the spring and summer of 2017. 

There ya go.

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No one knows. We'll just have to wait and see.

If it does though, I expect it'll be due to a lack of promotion or because of the competition it's up against at the box office.

If it does, there's a possibility Hasbro may take it as a sign that the show is declining and end the show at Season 7. Possibly. I'm just guessing honestly.

:pinkieshrug:

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Well thanks for being honest but if it does it because of Disney and the fact that they rule every thing, Disney needs to fall.

Its time that My Little Pony gets some Hollywood Recognition, from The Golden Globes to The Oscars and more.

 

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If the fandom buy tickets and go to the theater, if just to support G4 in it's entirety, I'm sure it well do well. I'm going no matter what.

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It depends, they make a lot of money on the worldwide ticket sales now when compared to the not too distant past, so you have to consider that too. And like everyone has been saying, it's all about the toys!!! A MLP motion picture means a whole new line of movie based toys, and it might rejuvenate the show too. For instance, a new generation that hasn't really been fans of the television show could be introduced to it from seeing the movie. This is what I'd like to happen, at any rate :)

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I see it like this: if they output the movie at the same quality of the trailer they just released, the movies going to be the best thing we've seen in years.

More realistically, since that trailer was probably specially made at a higher quality to bring in people to watch it, the movie is going to be slightly lower quality, which is still really good by most standards. As long as Hasbro doesn't completely botch up the plot of the movie, I think it should be a rather successful film. Successful as Disney, of course not. You can't judge Hasbro and Disney on the same scale. Movies are Disney's lifeblood. By non-Disney standards, I think it'll do pretty good. I'm going to put it right now at $453 million. That puts it with some pretty good movies for company.

And like @yeahthatsright said: Hasbro's success isn't dependent on the movie alone. Toys sales alone could easily make another hundred million. Hasbro can stake a lot of money on this movie without risking anything, and that could be what brings it success.

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I agree, and we're all familiar with MLP's success world-wide. I'm sure it will make good money on international release, not even counting the merch, which looks really cool from what I've seen.

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